![]() ![]() Since then, the two countries have sparred due to Warsaw’s opposition to Putin’s regional posturing and its support for Ukraine’s moves to embrace the West since 2014. After occupying Poland for 123 years prior to World War I, Russia invaded Poland again during World War II and installed a puppet communist regime after the war that lasted until 1989. In addition, Belarusian forces destroyed Polish border barriers, harassed Polish security forces, and allegedly fired blanks at Polish forces-the closest confrontation between a NATO member state and a Russian ally since the end of the Cold War.Įven before the current crisis, Poland, which joined NATO in 1999, had long been at odds with Russia. According to Poland and the EU, Lukashenko’s weaponization of migrants and his concurrent wave of propaganda against Poland constituted hybrid warfare. After Warsaw supported and provided refuge to the Belarusian opposition, Lukashenko engineered a migrant crisis in 2021, almost certainly with backing from Moscow, that left thousands of migrants stranded along the Polish-and European Union-border. Since then, Russian President Vladimir Putin has used Belarus to threaten Poland. Poland sits on the edges of the farthest western extensions of Russia’s presence in Europe: Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, which has effectively become a Russian proxy state since Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko called in Russian support against nationwide protests disputing his sham reelection in 2020. There’s a reason the West has focused on Poland during this crisis: Poland is currently the top defense spender in Eastern Europe behind Russia itself, and its critical location in the region makes it a key part of NATO’s deterrence network against Moscow. ![]() ![]() As both a target and vocal opponent of Russian ambitions, NATO’s largest member in Eastern Europe is positioned to play a crucial role in Europe’s security relationship with Russia and become the linchpin of Western efforts to project power in Eastern Europe. Sitting between Russia’s post-Soviet sphere and Western Europe, Poland is no stranger to great-power confrontation. Yet Poland’s importance in the slow-burning crisis may rise still further. Since December, Polish politicians have been visiting Kyiv to show solidarity with Ukraine announced plans to send tens of thousands of artillery shells, anti-aircraft weapons, and mortars, among other arms, to the country and, as of last week, finalized a new tripartite security agreement between Poland, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom that aims to improve trade and defense cooperation between the three countries. Meanwhile, Poland has been providing Kyiv with vital support. On Monday, Washington moved its diplomatic staff in Ukraine to Poland. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also announced a $6 billion weapons sale to Warsaw, which will include 250 M1 Abrams tanks, as he visited U.S. troops arriving in Eastern Europe since January: After sending 2,000 soldiers to Poland and Germany in early February, Washington deployed 3,000 additional troops to Poland, including from the 101st Airborne Division. Poland has been the main destination for U.S. So far, Warsaw’s diplomatic and military profile in the region has only grown throughout the crisis. ![]() Now that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine appears more likely by the day, Polish leaders are keenly aware that what happens in the coming weeks will inevitably affect Poland, too. After hackers hit several Ukrainian ministries and two major banks in the country last week, Poland’s public administration and security services heightened their own vigilance against potential cyberattacks. Towns across the country have been setting up accommodations to prepare for the up to 1 million refugees who could arrive if Russian forces, which have now entered Russia’s proxy states in eastern Ukraine, touch off a wider war. As a key NATO ally that shares a 332-mile border with Ukraine, Poland has been quietly bracing for the worst. ![]()
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